SITREP 6/23/24: Coordinated Terror Attacks by Ukraine and Friends Seek to Sow Instability

Today what appeared to be a large coordinated series of terror provocations was carried out by Ukraine and Western intel assets.

by Simplicius

In accordance with that, today Ukraine launched a coordinated ATACMs strike on beachgoers in Sevastopol, reportedly injuring ~150+ or more, and killing half a dozen, though that death toll may rise as per usual. At the same time, a jihadi terrorist cell was activated in Dagestan, which went on a killing spree targeting Orthodox Christian churches, as well as a Synagogue, with one of the Orthodox priests reportedly having his throat slit. Also, an attack occurred on the Abkhazia border with multiple dead as well. Keep in mind this is just days after an ISIS cell staged an attack in a Rostov prison, though fortunately the only victims there were the jihadis themselves.

The newly activated spree is clearly meant to provoke religious strife and ethnic tensions within Russia at its vulnerable Caucasian flanks.

Is it any surprise then that, in perfect accordance with the stated terror goal above, top pro-UA figures are voicing a uniform propaganda line about the effect the latest strikes will have against Putin and Russia? Just take a look for yourself, again from the earlier article which predicts the terror campaign—carefully read the underlined portion:

Now behold as top pro-Ukrainian accounts mimic the narrative in perfect lockstep after today’s terror attacks:

Thus is the mechanism behind the simplistic information attack: Destabilize Russia under the scheme of exaggerated panic in order to sow social unrest and dissatisfaction with the leadership’s responses. Make it seem like Putin is “losing grip” on the situation, and that the brewing ‘instability’ is a result of society rising up, a narrative that will naturally be chained along and amplified by the Western corporate press. It’s a very run-of-the-mill psyop technology package.

But it does put Russia between rock and hard place to the extent that they’re forced into choosing between two non-ideal directions. By blaming the U.S. and escalating in some direct kinetic way, Russia would be playing into Zelensky’s hand of appearing the ‘aggressor’, which will free NATO to coerce more of its membership into taking hostile stances against Russia. Conversely, by doing nothing, it does potentially generate ill-will in the Russian citizenry who may perceive the leadership as abandoning them by acting weak in the face of such overt targeted aggression.

Recall that just days ago in Vietnam, Putin addressed Kiev’s escalations by implying that the more they threaten Russia’s statehood, the more resolved Russia will be to “go all the way”:

The AFU reportedly released this video of 8 ATACMS missiles being fired, presumably onto Crimea:

If true it would point to Russian ISR weaknesses that such a large assembly of launchers can fire at will without being tracked and at least partly destroyed. However, it could be a propaganda video, as Rezident UA channel today released this rumor as to how the strikes are being carried out:

“Our source at the General Staff said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are launching missile attacks on Sevastopol and Crimea with the help of dry cargo ships, on which launchers with ATACMS missiles are placed. After launch, the ship goes to the Black Sea or Odessa cargo port and merges with other dry cargo ships that are stationed there.”

If there’s any truth to that, it would point to Ukraine’s launchers being so vulnerable to Russian counterattack that they’re forced to resort to such elaborate means to launch the strikes.

But the only good news as takeaway is that Russian AD is reportedly said to have downed not only all—or at least most—of the missiles in the latest round, but also many other recent salvos over the past week or two. The lack of any new Ukrainian footage of targets being successfully hit attests to this, which means at the least that Russia is starting to successfully interdict the ATACMS missiles.

This follows “rumors” a week ago that Russia was moving an S-500 unit into Crimea, which has a more powerful radar able to track ballistic missiles with such 0.2m2 RCS characteristics at much greater distances and altitudes. That being said, Ukrainian drones continue to strike Russian oil targets, but rarely with ‘devastating’ results. One of the latest such strikes near Krasnodar merely ‘damaged’ a single oil tank, which is negligible in effect.

In the meantime, while Ukraine continues wasting their precious resources striking civilian targets or Crimea in general—which has no real military value—Russia steadily wears down the Ukrainian energy grid and battlefield forces with a nonstop onslaught of massive Fab attacks.

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