Simplicius: Israel's Path of Peril [Are They Getting Their Ass Kicked by Hamas?]
Last night Hezbollah carried out another large-scale attack on Israel, billed as their ‘retaliation’ for the death of commander Fouad Shukr.
Last night Hezbollah carried out another large-scale attack on Israel, billed as their ‘retaliation’ for the death of commander Fouad Shukr. The usual occurred: Israel’s night sky bloomed with constellations of Iron Dome rockets and panicked citizens packed airports to flee the country.
Israel claimed to have carried out a large preemptive attack that destroyed much of Hezbollah’s rocket stock before it was used.
An IDF Dvora-class boat was even hit by what appeared to be a guided Hezbollah missile off the coast of Nahariya in northern Israel, with at least one crew member stated to have been killed:
What’s most remarkable is that we are now approaching the one year anniversary, this October, of the start of Israel’s war on Gaza, and yet Israel has still not been able to entirely defeat a tiny Hamas force. Russia gets criticism for taking what’s now over two years to defeat Europe’s largest military force, while the country previously billed as having “the world’s most advanced military” cannot defeat a tiny guerilla force in a year’s time.
This fact is backed up by many official sources:
The first, from NY Times above, states:
Israel has achieved all that it can militarily in Gaza, according to senior American officials, who say continued bombings are only increasing risks to civilians while the possibility of further weakening Hamas has diminished.
…a growing number of national security officials across the government said that the Israeli military had severely set back Hamas but would never be able to completely eliminate the group.
Also:
Israel’s most recent military operations have been something of a Whac-a-Mole strategy in the eyes of American analysts. As Israel develops intelligence about a potential regrouping of Hamas fighters, the Israel Defense Forces have moved to go in after them.
They go on to admit that Hamas’ tunnel network has turned out to be far more vast and stronger than Israel anticipated, and while many tunnels were damaged, many remain unharmed from which Hamas continues to operate.
Current and former Pentagon officials complain that Israel has not yet demonstrated that it can secure all of the areas in Gaza that it has seized, particularly after its forces pull back.
But a recent CNN article refutes even the modest claims of Israeli success given above:
Right up front they state:
Netanyahu, who faces growing international pressure to agree to a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza, has repeatedly said that Israeli forces are nearing their stated goal of eliminating Hamas and destroying its military capabilities. Addressing a joint meeting of Congress on July 24, he said: “Victory is in sight.”
But forensic analyses of Hamas’ military operations since it led attacks against Israel on October 7, which draw on Israeli and Hamas military statements, footage from the ground and interviews with experts and eyewitnesses, cast doubt on his claims.
Despite having its leader assassinated and taking all the other ‘blows’ Israel has claimed to have dealt, Hamas, CNN writes, continues to make a comeback:
And yet, the research, which covers Hamas’ activities up until July, shows that the group appears to have made effective use of dwindling resources on the ground. Several units have made a comeback in key areas cleared by the Israeli military after pitched battles and intensive bombardment, according to the new analyses, salvaging the remnants of their battalions in a desperate bid to replenish their ranks.
In a stunner, CNN states that the military wing of Hamas, Al-Qassam, had 24 battle-ready battalions, and that the IDF has only degraded a miniscule 3 of them:
Hamas’ military wing, known as the Qassam Brigades, is divided into 24 battalions spread throughout the territory, according to the Israeli military.
One year of “the world’s most advanced military force”, and they can only degrade 3 enemy battalions? Meanwhile, Russia destroys that many Ukrainian battalions on some days.
They do go on to clarify that 8 of the 24 battalions are considered fully “combat effective”, while the remaining 13 have been somewhat degraded but continue to function in a more sporadic, guerilla style. But they admit that Hamas is actively working on reconstituting all of the degraded battalions.
While Israel naturally dismissed these findings, US military figures continue to poke back:
“If the Hamas battalions were largely destroyed, Israeli forces wouldn’t still be fighting,” said retired US Army Col. Peter Mansoor, who helped oversee the deployment of an additional 30,000 US troops to Iraq in 2007 – a counterinsurgency strategy known as “the surge.”
“The fact that they’re still in Gaza, still trying to rout out elements of the Hamas battalions shows me that Prime Minister Netanyahu is wrong,” he added. “The ability of Hamas to reconstitute its fighting forces is undiminished.”
The article quotes Palestinian civilians fleeing from the north of Gaza, who said that Hamas there is stronger than ever and is actively rebuilding their forces.
“We began to notice a resurgence in Hamas less than a week after Israel withdrew from northern Gaza in January,” said Carter from CTP. “We saw this effect continuing throughout the strip ... This has been the defining process from the Hamas battalions.”
One ‘high ranking Israeli soldier’ told CNN that Hamas’ statements on rebuilding are true, and that they have recruited ‘thousands’ of new members in the past few months.
Expert Robert Pape tells CNN that Israel’s actions are only making Hamas stronger:
“Israel is generating exactly the kind of additional political anger, the additional grief, the additional emotion that will lead additional people to become fighters,” said Pape.
“The actual strategic power of Hamas is growing,” he said. “The power of Hamas is in its power to recruit.”
In essence, it reflects the Empire’s typical hubris, now seen so often the world wide:
What’s most remarkable is the fact that many increasingly believe the situation is leading to Israel’s eventual dissolution. In some ways, it can be argued that Netanyahu and his racist rightwing clan is deliberately fostering a Hamas renewal because their plan B is to use the Hamas specter as an excuse to continue devastating Gaza indefinitely until all Palestinians are purged, one way or another. It would be a win-win scenario for Israel, if it weren’t for the fact that Israeli society itself is facing extreme pressures from the ongoing tensions.
In the CNN article above, a high ranking Israeli officer states:
In fact, more and more observers believe that Israel is in a kind of ‘death spiral’:
While Israeli general Yitzhak Brik dropped a bombshell the other day on Haaretz, declaring that Israel will collapse in less than a year:
Yitzhak Brik has reportedly been called ‘The Prophet of Wrath’ in Israel for accurately predicting the Al-Aqsa Flood operation. Now, in an Oped for Haaretz, he accuses the Israeli government of ‘throwing dust in the eyes’ of the public by lying about their destruction of Hamas.
I assume that Defense Minister Gallant already understands that the war has lost its purpose. Israel is sinking deeper into the Gazan mud, losing more and more soldiers as they get killed or wounded, without any chance of achieving the war's main goal: bringing down Hamas.
The country really is galloping towards the edge of an abyss. If the war of attrition against Hamas and Hezbollah continues, Israel will collapse within no more than a year.
He cites dissolution and polarization of Israeli society, economic losses, and Israel’s slow unwinding toward pariah state status. He further states that Hamas’ new leader Sinwar understands the situation and is deliberately dragging it out to further bleed Israel as a nation; in short: “the war of attrition is working in his favor.”
He saves his gravest condemnations for Netanyahu himself:
Netanyahu decided to "die with the Philistines" – in this case, the citizens of Israel – only to retain his power.
He has lost his humanity, basic morality, norms, values, and responsibility for Israel's security. Only replacing him and his cronies as soon as possible can save the country. Israel has entered an existential tailspin and could soon reach a point of no return.
He concludes:
He’s right in how absolutely feral Israeli leaders have become in their frustrations at the world community not backing Israel’s cruel and wicked terror. Just take in the recent video of Israeli ambassador to the UN Gilad Erdan’s comments from his car, as he leaves the UN HQ in NYC.
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