Israel Buckles as Iran War Shifts to New Drag-Out Phase

Today a round of urgent talks concluded in Geneva between European-American representatives and Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi

by Simplicius

Today a round of urgent talks concluded in Geneva between European-American representatives and Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi. The talks reportedly went nowhere as Iran rejected calls to end all enrichment, and instead rebutted that Iran will not negotiate with anyone until all attacks by Israel first cease.

Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi: I have told the Europeans that Iran will never negotiate on its missile program and that uranium enrichment is a red line. Iran will NOT negotiate with any party as long as Israeli attacks continue. We will continue to exercise our legitimate right to self-defense against Israel.

Araghchi will next try Moscow, where he heads on Monday.

But this development is remarkable for a number of reasons:

First, the arrant hypocrisy demonstrated by the Western-bloc position that Iran must first negotiate and only then will hostilities be brought to an end. Wait a second, wasn’t it that in Ukraine the “appropriate” sequence of events, according to this ‘rules based odour’, is that first hostilities must immediately cease, and only then negotiations should begin?

As you can see, the West twists the chain of logic in whichever way serves its interests at the particular time. In Ukraine’s case, Ukraine is badly losing and so the West seeks to immediately save their ward by sermonizing Russia about how it’s only “right” that hostilities must end first. In Iran’s case, it’s the opposite: the West is quite keen to allow Israel its illegal and unprovoked campaign of violence against Iran.

No consistency, no principles, as always.

But the other remarkable thing is that Araghchi’s bold rejection seems to imply that Iran is not particularly desperate for an end to the hostilities, which can only indicate that its leadership views their chances in the escalating attritional war positively, contrary to Western propaganda that Iran is ‘on the ropes’. Of course, we can’t let that guide our analysis entirely—every country utilizes their own flavor of bluffs and deimatic behavior as defense mechanism.

We must admit that Israel has begun racking up some serious damage against Iran since the last report. The latest compilation released by the IDF shows quite a few new Iranian radar sites hit by what is likely to be Delilah missiles

:The destruction of various Iranian radar stations, including a local copy of the Kasta and Mersad , and the Tor-M1 air defense missile system, by Delilhah cruise missiles and hangar/warehouse.

Furthermore, Oryx’s team has apparently now engaged themselves in this conflict, and claim nearly ~80 verified hits on Iranian ballistic missile launchers thus far.

It brings us to the brief discussion of numbers. Sources claim Iran has anywhere from 3,000 to 28,000 total ballistic missiles, and produces roughly ~300 new ones per month, which is a relatively plausible number given what we know of Russia’s own production figures. 28,000 is likely exaggerated, and the lower end of the scale is a more realistic bet; no country really has stockpiles that large.

For argument’s sake, let’s say Iran had closer to 3,000, though it could be a bit more than that. Some sources claim Iran has already launched 1,500 of them, and thus could have gone through a significant portion of its stockpiles. However, more precise graphs like the following seem to point to only about ~500 total having been launched thus far:

Recall that according to Western intel Iran produces up to ~300 per month. This could also point to why Iran has cut down to launching only a dozen or so per day, as 10 per day multiplied by 30 days is precisely 300—this would allow Iran to essentially break even and launch just enough to continue the pace indefinitely without further depleting stockpiles.

But on top of that, Israel’s ability to repel the strikes has been degraded as well, as per their own sources:

That means Iran needs to fire nearly half as much, for the same effect. And this is shown by the graph above, where you can see that claimed “impacts” are similar despite the numbers launched being much lower than initially.

▪️Despite the reduction in the number of missiles in a salvo by the end of the first week of shelling, the number of recorded hits often remains approximately the same - at the level of 4-5 hits . This number was observed both with 50 missiles launched and with 20.

A couple fascinating videos.

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