If SpaceX’s Secret Constellation Is What We Think It Is, It’s Game Changing (Updated)

A constellation of hundreds of sensor-equipped satellites would offer unprecedented strategic and tactical surveillance around the globe.

by Joseph Trevithick, Tyler Rogoway

The U.S. National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) is reportedly acquiring a constellation of hundreds of intelligence-gathering satellites from SpaceX, with a specific focus on tracking targets down below in support of ground operations. Though details about this project are still very limited, there are clear parallels to what the U.S. Space Force has previously said about a highly classified space-based radar surveillance program, which it first publicly disclosed around the same time SpaceX is said to have gotten its NRO contract. If this program is the one we think it is, it could bring about a revolution in both tactical and strategic space-based sensing.

Starshield, SpaceX's government-sales-focused business unit, has been working on the new low Earth orbit (LEO) spy satellites under a $1.8 billion contract it received in 2021 from NRO, according to a report from Reuters this past weekend, citing five anonymous sources familiar with the deal. The Wall Street Journal had previously published a story about the existence of the contract in February, but did not name NRO as being involved or provide specific details about the deal's scope of work.

At the time of writing, neither SpaceX nor its CEO Elon Musk appear to have directly responded to the Reuters article or otherwise commented on the details therein. NRO, a U.S. military organization that serves as America's main remote sensing intelligence arm, and is so secret that its existence was not publicly acknowledged until 1992, declined to comment on the specifics of any deal with SpaceX, according to Reuters.

"We've changed our procurement methods to take advantage of LEO technologies," Troy Meink, NRO's principal deputy director, said in a speech at the Satellite 2024 conference on Monday, according to SpaceNews. "Our main priority is to meet the requirements with minimum risk.

When the new constellation, or at least an initial segment thereof, might begin collecting intelligence operationally, if it hasn't already, isn't clear. SpaceX has been launching relevant prototype satellites since 2020, before its formal contract with NRO, and "a U.S. government database of objects in orbit shows several SpaceX missions having deployed satellites that neither the company nor the government have ever acknowledged," per Reuters.

As for why SpaceX is the one to deliver this constellation to the Pentagon, it pioneered the capability and is really the only experienced contractor in this area at this time, although that will change in the years to come.

The Starshield business unit was only publicly unveiled in 2022 and its first confirmed contract, for space-based communications services, came from the U.S. Space Force the following year. The U.S. Army has also publicly evaluated communications capabilities provided by Starshield. The U.S. military has also tested SpaceX's commercial Starlink space-based communications service on multiple past occasions.

In the context of the Reuters report about its work for the NRO, SpaceX's Starshield website does currently list "Earth Observation" as one of its three main focus areas. The other two are "Communications" and "Hosted Payloads."

"Starlink already offers unparalleled end-to-end user data encryption. Starshield uses additional high-assurance cryptographic capability to host classified payloads and process data securely, meeting the most demanding government requirements," according to the Starshield site. "Starlink's inter-satellite laser communications terminal, which is the only communications laser operating at scale in orbit today, can be integrated onto partner satellites to enable incorporation into the Starshield network."

Laser-based communications systems are capable of sending large amounts of information quickly and are also highly secure and resistant to electronic warfare jamming, as you can read more about here.

Details about the specific capabilities of the satellites NRO is reportedly acquiring from SpaceX are scant. Reuters reported that they can "track targets on the ground and share that data with U.S. intelligence and military officials" and will be "bearing Earth-imaging capabilities that can operate as a swarm."

There is no indication one way or another from Reuters' story what kind of 'imagery' the satellites are designed to capture. This, in turn, raises questions about whether the kind of intelligence product being described here is really part of a broader space-based ground surveillance capability. Also, traditional electro-optical and infrared imagery taken from low Earth orbit isn't widely used for real-time tracking targets on the ground, at least on a large scale.

In May 2021, now-retired Gen. Jay Raymond, then head of Space Force, disclosed that his service was "building GMTI [Ground Moving Target Indicator] from space" and was "actively working to be able to provide that capability" as part of a classified program. Space Force subsequently told Breaking Defense that the development of this particular space-based GMTI capability could be traced back to a 2018 project within the Air Force Rapid Capabilities Office (RCO).

GMTI refers to a mode found on certain radars, which allows them to discriminate between moving targets on the ground and static ones, and can track these moving targets' activity over time. GMTI as we know it today came in part out of the Pentagon's multi-faceted Pave Mover initiative of the latter Cold War period. Radar with GMTI can usually also provide synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery, which is the ability to capture highly detailed image-like ground maps, even through cloud cover, smoke, and dust, and at night.

GMTI capability has improved remarkably over the years and the hardware associated with it has become far more compact, especially with the introduction of active electronically scanned array (AESA) radars and improved processing power. Combining GMTI and SAR can provide far greater context data being collected. These capabilities have become so sensitive that the combination of these modes can even provide automated identification and classification of what targets GMTI is picking up.

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