Commitment, Confirmation Bias, and the Trap of False Shepherds: How Societies Lose Sight of Truth
“They must find it difficult, those who have taken authority as truth, rather than truth as authority.”
by Liberty Advocate, ironcountynews.org
“They must find it difficult, those who have taken authority as truth, rather than truth as authority.”
— Gerald Massey
Introduction: The Allure of Strong Leaders
Throughout history, societies have gravitated toward strong leaders—charismatic politicians, celebrity idols, and even so-called occult or spiritual “guides.” People crave certainty, belonging, and the sense of security that comes from following someone who “knows the way.” But this yearning, if not anchored in truth and moral maturity, becomes the fertile ground for the rise of false shepherds—those who lead, not to liberty and truth, but to manipulation and control.
The Roots of the Trap: Commitment and Confirmation Bias
The Psychology of Commitment
Commitment is powerful. Once we invest ourselves—emotionally, intellectually, or materially—in a cause, a leader, or an ideology, our ego and identity become attached. This can be noble: loyalty to principle, perseverance in hardship, faithfulness in adversity. But it also creates a blind spot: the deeper the commitment, the harder it is to admit error, change direction, or even see new evidence clearly.
The Machinery of Confirmation Bias
Confirmation bias is the mind’s subconscious tendency to seek, interpret, and recall information that supports what we already believe or want to be true. It’s a built-in mental shortcut that makes us feel secure and validated, but it also closes us off from reality.
When commitment and confirmation bias reinforce each other, even the most outrageous behavior or clear evidence of betrayal by a leader or movement can be rationalized, minimized, or ignored.
Authority as Truth: The Legalism Trap
Massey and the Authority Problem
Gerald Massey’s warning is timeless: When people mistake authority for truth, rather than making truth their authority, they become vulnerable to legalism—a Stage 4 morality in Kohlberg’s framework.
Laws, traditions, and powerful leaders become the definition of “right”—questioning is discouraged or even punished.
Conscience is outsourced: “If my leader, party, or institution says it, it must be true.”
The Risk: Unquestioning Loyalty
When citizens or followers become deeply committed to a political figure, idol, or even an occult leader, commitment mutates into unquestioning loyalty.
Healthy commitment turns toxic when it is defended at all costs, even when evidence mounts that the leader is deceiving, gaslighting, or betraying the very people who trusted them.
Confirmation bias works overtime to reinterpret every disappointment, excuse every contradiction, and silence every whistleblower.
The Judas Goat Dynamic: How False Shepherds Exploit Commitment and Bias
The Mechanism
A “Judas goat” is a leader who, by gaining the trust of the flock, can lead them precisely where they do not want to go—often to their own harm.
In politics, a charismatic figure promises to fight the system, expose corruption, and protect the “common people.”
Over time, as the leader becomes enmeshed in the very system they promised to dismantle, supporters face a choice: admit betrayal, or double down on commitment and filter out evidence of failure or compromise.
Gaslighting and Rationalization
Gaslighting: The leader manipulates reality—downplaying scandals, flipping narratives, and making the opposition look like the real threat.
Rationalization: Supporters, bound by emotional and identity investment, twist logic to preserve their allegiance—“It’s all part of the plan,” “He’s playing 4D chess,” “Everyone else is lying.”
Confirmation Bias and Commitment in Action: Case Study
Imagine this scenario:
A widely celebrated political figure, once a champion of anti-corruption, begins to sidestep questions about a major scandal implicating the elite. Whistleblowers are dismissed as traitors or tools of the enemy.
Laws and policies are justified “because our leader says so.”
Supporters share only news that flatters their side; contradictory information is labeled as “fake news” or ignored.
Anyone raising hard questions is branded a traitor, a “sellout,” or part of the opposition.
The result?
A movement that began in pursuit of truth devolves into a cult of personality, legalistic conformity, and a fortress of cognitive dissonance. Even when the leader betrays core values, the flock marches on—blind to the betrayal, resistant to awakening.
The Antidote: Moral Maturity and the Courage to Seek Truth
From Legalism to Universal Principle
Stage 4 Legalism: Authority defines truth. Obedience is prized above understanding.
Stages 5 and 6 (Kohlberg): Truth defines authority. Conscience, universal justice, and a willingness to challenge even our heroes when they err become the marks of moral maturity.
Practical Steps Forward
Value Principle Over Personality: Anchor commitment in values and truth, not in fallible leaders.
Seek Disconfirming Evidence: Actively look for information that challenges your beliefs. If your cause is just, it will withstand scrutiny.
Protect Whistleblowers and Dissenters: Societies that cherish truth must honor those who question power—even (especially!) when it is “our own side.”
Cultivate Humility: The willingness to admit error, change direction, and put truth above ego is the essence of growth.
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